Responsive Image Banner

Analyst predicts lower prices to start ‘24

Premium Content

Natural gas prices will likely rebound in second half of next year, DBRS Morningstar says

North American gas markets are likely to be weak through the early part of 2024, according to a new outlook from industry analysts at DBRS Morningstar.

The analysts point to higher-than-average underground gas storage inventories in the United States at the onset of winter as well as the possibility for warmer-than-normal temperatures this winter across the northern U.S., reducing heating demand, relatively weak consumption from industrial and commercial sectors, partly caused by a reduction in business activity from elevated interest rates, and strong production growth from key producing basins in the U.S. The combination of these factors will likely keep natural gas inventories at a heightened level through the winter months, leading to prices being held back in the near term.

“We project U.S. demand growth of between 3% and 4% in both 2024 and 2025,” the forecast states. “U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are forecast to steadily grow over the next few years, as five new export projects are currently under construction, in addition to expansion at existing facilities. Currently, the delivered cost of U.S. gas to Europe of $4 per mcf–$7 per mcf is very competitive with other suppliers (assumes shipping costs of approx. $1 per mcf–$3 per mcf).”

Key Highlights of the 2024 and 2025 Price Forecasts

  • A surplus of natural gas through early 2024.
  • The U.S. supply/demand balance will gradually tighten as low gas prices tend to discourage new production while, simultaneously, incentivizing more demand. This should lead to a reduction in inventory and for the spot gas price to be bid higher.
  • For the full-year 2024, the NYMEX price will average $3.50/thousand cubic feet (mcf) and the AECO price will average CAD 3.00/mcf, in line with our previous forecasts.
  • For 2025, the forecast calls for an average NYMEX price of $3.50/mcf and AECO of CAD 3.00/mcf, also in line with prior expectations.

MAGAZINE
NEWSLETTER
Delivered directly to your inbox, CompressorTech² News features the pick of the breaking news stories, product launches, show reports and more from KHL's world-class editorial team.
Latest News
Everllence technology selected for Stockholm Exergi’s large-scale BECCS project
Former MAN Energy Solutions unit to supply compressor and expander train for carbon removal facility
Wison New Energies and Siemens Energy sign MoU on floating LNG cooperation
Agreement focuses on turbine and compressor packages to streamline offshore project development
TotalEnergies, partners reach FID on fourth train at Rio Grande LNG
Final investment decision will expand South Texas export terminal to 24 mtpa by 2030
CONNECT WITH THE TEAM
Jack Burke Senior Editor Tel: +1 262 527 0815 E-mail: [email protected]
Gabriele Dinsel Brand Manager Tel: +49 711 34 06 73 50 E-mail: [email protected]
Kristin Pride USA Sales Representative Tel: +1 720 298 8546 E-mail: [email protected]
CONNECT WITH SOCIAL MEDIA

WEBINAR: Carbon Capture and Storage

COMPRESSORTech² is giving you a front-row seat to the technologies making CCS work today. Join Baker Hughes and Caterpillar as they share hands-on case studies and deployment insights—from CO₂ compression and pipeline transport to secure underground storage.

📅 December 4 2025

I want to attend!