EIA forecasts U.S. industrial natural gas demand to reach new highs through 2027

U.S. industrial natural gas consumption is expected to reach record levels through 2027, according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), as rising manufacturing activity continues to support demand across energy-intensive industries.

The EIA said industrial natural gas consumption averaged a record 23.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025, surpassing the previous high of 23.4 Bcf/d set in 2023. The agency forecasts demand will continue climbing gradually over the next two years, increasing by 1.2% in 2026 and another 1.7% in 2027.

Under the forecast, industrial natural gas demand would rise by about 0.3 Bcf/d in 2026 and 0.4 Bcf/d in 2027.

The EIA attributed the expected growth largely to modest gains in manufacturing activity, particularly in sectors with high natural gas intensity. The agency forecasts the natural gas-weighted manufacturing index will increase 1.5% in 2026 and 0.7% in 2027.

Much of the demand growth is expected to come from the chemicals sector, which remains the largest industrial consumer of natural gas in the United States. Natural gas is widely used in chemical manufacturing both as a fuel source and as a feedstock for products including methanol, fertilizer and hydrogen.

Other energy-intensive industries, including refining and petrochemical manufacturing, are also expected to support consumption levels, particularly along the Gulf Coast where relatively low U.S. natural gas prices encouraged major industrial expansions during the past decade.

The EIA noted that industrial natural gas consumption has remained relatively stable since 2018, apart from the sharp decline during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the subsequent recovery in 2021 and 2022.

Although industrial activity is expected to increase, the agency said efficiency improvements continue to moderate the pace of demand growth. Many industrial operators have adopted more efficient process heaters and heat-recovery technologies that reduce fuel consumption per unit of production.

Even so, the EIA expects rising output to outweigh efficiency gains during the forecast period.

Industrial demand is also expected to maintain its traditional seasonal pattern, with the highest consumption occurring during winter months when colder temperatures increase heating requirements at industrial facilities.

Industrial natural gas consumption averaged 26.1 Bcf/d in January 2026, according to the EIA, and is forecast to rise to 26.7 Bcf/d in January 2027. Seasonal demand lows are expected during the summer months, with June consumption projected to average about 22.6 Bcf/d in both 2026 and 2027.